The white vote in 2008

September 21 2008

In the U.$. elections John McCain is leading Barack Obama 55 to 37% among whites.(1)

On January 1, 2003, a Republican blogger denied that there is such a thing as the "white vote": "there is obviously no such thing as the 'white vote' because voters who are white do not vote en bloc."(2) The next election proved the Republican blogger wrong, because in 2004, Bush won only the white racial group and also lost the Jewish sub-group. Bush won with 57% of whites according to one source.

The truth about the re-election of Bush made no factual impression on Democrats, who in May 2008 could be found saying once again that there is no "white vote" right on one of their leading websites, where the activists are supposed to be well-informed. Uh, "Zynx,"(3) if there is no such thing as the "white vote," then which race did elect Bush? Imagine that Liberals, a contest between two white individuals hinged on race. Both Republican Liberals and Democratic Liberals are in denial about their country.

Racism and national chauvinism are structural problems in the united $tates. They do not go away based on the color of two individuals in conflict. Two individuals may be white or they may both be Black or they may be both Yellow, but Amerikkka is uncanny in its racism: it's still possible for one or the other individual in a pair to draw on structural racism. It happens all the time.

In a 55 to 37 contest, there are still 8 percentage points excluded. If we assume McCain gets four of those eight points, he achieves 59% of the white vote, very possibly enough to win. Yet it won't be because of individual racism against Obama. It is structural racism that also applied in the Kerry contest. Carter came from the South and won 47% of the white vote, the best of recent Democrats.

For people not accustomed to thinking the way MIM does, 59% may sound high, like a blow-out. However, we just have to remember the non-white voters.

Mentally, we check against two issues. One, we do not see anything on McCain's agenda that will rally white voters and socially conservative Latinos like Karl Rove's gay-bashing referenda of 2004. Two, we check white approval of the Iraq War.

"The percentage of white people who say Bush made the right decision to go to war in Iraq has exceeded that for minorities by 9 points to 25 points in AP-Ipsos polls over the past four years."(4)

53% of whites now want troops home within a year.(5) Originally, whites overwhelming supported the war. These mental spot-checks indicate an uphill climb for McCain.

The war plays poorly among Latino voters, who appear to be leaning toward Obama more than they leaned toward Kerry in 2004.

Even if McCain carries the "Native-Amerikan" vote, he will be hard-pressed to make up his losses among Blacks and Spanish-speaking voters. By themselves, Spanish-speaking voters can make up for a two point gain among whites for McCain, if Obama carries 80% of Spanish-speakers.

Bush's white turnout in 2004 was an exceptional achievement. Without the gay- bashing vote revved up, McCain needs so-called moderate white Kerry voters to stay home and stay-homers from 2004 to vote for McCain. Otherwise, Bill Richardson will turn out correct that the Spanish-speaking vote will carry Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico and Obama will win.(6)

I suspect that without the gay-bashing referenda, McCain's vote will be below Bush's, 60 million in 2004. Meanwhile, Obama's Black and Hispanic vote will be up from Kerry's in 2004. At the moment, Obama seems to be doing better than Kerry winded up doing in 2004. The real reason polls differ over time is trying to weight them based on who is actually going to vote. Age group and party affiliation are very difficult to weight.

If so-called middle-of-the-road whites stay home, because the two candidates raced for the center, both McCain's and Obama's voter turnout may be lower than the corresponding turnouts in the 2004 election--despite all the hype and signs that the mail-in and youth votes will be higher this time. Mail-in voting has already started.(7) If McCain wins a racial group other than whites, I will stop yapping about the "white vote" for an election cycle--a promise.

Notes:
1. http://washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/13/whites-lifting-mccain-into-lead-poll-says/
For more history on the white vote: http://www.ndol.org/ndol_ci.cfm?kaid=127&subid=171&contentid=3564
2. http://mcgeheezone.com/index.php/zone/comments/differences1/ ;
also echoed by a Texas Republican web page administrator in 2008, http://www.usmessageboard.com/race-relations-racism/57021-winning-the-white-vote.html 3. http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5935112
4. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,274112,00.html
5. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/the_war_in_iraq/iraq_troop_withdrawal
6. http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2008/sep/14/richardson-says-hispanic-voters-are-key-obama-win/ ;
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-immig19-2008sep19,0,1001572.story
7. http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4791388.ece